1974—2020年珠江口外海海洋热浪变化趋势分析

doi:10.11978/2022017

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the daily mean sea surface temperature (SST) data observed at the Dawanshan Marine Environmental Monitoring Station (DMEMS) in the Pearl River Estuary from 1974 to 2020, the definition of marine heatwaves (MHW) adopted by the World Meteorological Organization, the intensity classification criteria, and the global and northern hemisphere annual mean surface temperature anomaly data, the trends of MHW in the Pearl River Estuary are analyzed using correlation and comparison methods. The results show that: 1) MHW incidents have occurred annually in the Pearl River Estuary in the past 47 years, with an average of 6.5 times per year and up to 13 times in 2020. There is an upward trend in the number of occurrences every year. The average duration is 11.7 days, up to 62 days. 2) MHW days in the Pearl River Estuary have increased significantly in the past 47 years, with an increasing rate of 1.81 d·a^-1. 3) During this period, the proportion of MHW days with each level of intensity to all days is: moderate 18.92%, strong 53.24%, severe 24.06% and extreme 3.77%. 4) The main reasons for the increase of MHW days and the occurrence of extreme MHW in the Pearl River Estuary might be global warming, enhanced high pressure and weakened monsoon in the South China Sea. It is estimated that the MHW days in the Pearl River Estuary will increase in the future.

Key words: marine heatwaves, global warming, weakening of monsoon, Pearl River Estuary

CLC Number:

P732

TANG Ling, NIE Yuhua, WANG Ping, TANG Chaolian. Trend analysis of marine heatwaves variability in the outer Pearl River estuary from 1974 to 2020[J].Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2022, 41(6): 143-150.

Figures/Tables 13

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年代际	MHW日数	MHW强度等级日数				全球温度距平/℃	北半球温度距平/℃
年代际	MHW日数	中度	强	严重	极端	全球温度距平/℃	北半球温度距平/℃
1981—1990	42.2	12.4	29.4	0.4	0.0	-0.16	-0.27
1991—2000	67.5	11.4	39.2	13.9	3.0	-0.04	-0.03
2001—2010	100.0	18.9	56.8	23.5	1.4	0.21	0.30
2011—2020	108.0	14.7	46.0	38.2	9.1	0.41	0.56

季节	MHW		各级强度比例/%				最大强度	MHW日数上升率/(d·a^-1)
季节	平均次数/季	平均日数/次	中度	强烈	严重	极端	最大强度	MHW日数上升率/(d·a^-1)
冬	1.38	17.2	18.7	41.6	30.8	8.9	4.44^*	0.53
春	1.25	14.2	33.7	56.4	9.85	0.0	3.00	0.31
夏	2.38	23.0	13.1	50.7	33.4	2.8	2.61	0.45
秋	1.72	20.2	19.1	63.2	11.4	6.3	2.46	0.57
全年	6.73	74.6	18.9	53.2	24.1	3.8	4.44	1.83

年份	项目	月份												年
年份	项目	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	年
2016	热浪日数/d	20	0	0	0	0	17	23	0	0	16	23	24	123
	月SST距平/℃	0.6	-1.2	-1.2	-0.6	-0.2	1.4	0.8	-1.3	0.1	0.7	1.4	-0.3	0.6
	500hPa高度	5820	5840	5826	5856	5881	5892	5885	5859	5879	5887	5887	5858	5864
2020	热浪日数/d	31	9	10	0	22	19	24	0	19	14	0	7	153
	月SST距平/℃	1.7	1.4	1.8	0.5	1.8	1.4	1.1	0.3	1.4	-0.1	-0.26	0.72	0.9
	500hPa高度	5830	5841	5844	5855	5884	5888	5891	5872	5893	5910	5893	5856	5872

Trend analysis of marine heatwaves variability in the outer Pearl River estuary from 1974 to 2020

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