秋季登陆广东热带气旋特征变化及机制分析

doi:10.11978/2023044

Abstract

Abstract:

Using the track data of landed tropical cyclones (TCs) during 1949—2021 from Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration, this study analyzes the variation and mechanism of TCs landed in autumn in Guangdong area, and compares with the results in summer. The results show that a total of 76 TCs landed in Guangdong in autumn during the past 73 years, accounting for 28.5% of the landed TCs in whole year. The landed TCs in autumn (ALTCs) are mostly in categories of strong typhoon and super typhoon, and the mean peak intensities are stronger than those in summer. 72.4% of the ALTCs generated in the Western North Pacific, a higher portion than summer landed TCs and the average latitude and longitude of TCs generation move southward and eastward. The yearly power dissipation index (PDI) of autumn TCs reaches 0.4×10⁷m³·s⁻², comparable to that of summer TCs; during landfall to dissipation, the average duration time of autumn TCs is less, the translation speed is slower and PDI is less than those of summer TCs. In long-term variations, the declining trend and decrease rate of the number of ALTCs is similar to that in summer, while the landing intensity of ALTCs increases with a rate 1.8 times higher than that in summer. The translation speed of ALTCs slows down but with a rate 2.5 times lower than summer TCs, the PDI of ALTCs shows a weaker decreasing trend than summer TCs. Unlike more TCs landed in summer in La Niña year, more ALTCs appeared in El Niño years. The number of ALTCs is related to the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) index in previous winter and spring with correlation coefficient of about 0.3. It can be used as an indicator for next-year ENSO prediction. In decadal variability, the correlation coefficients between the number of ALTCs and the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) index, were -0.51 and 0.68 in the warm phase (1977—1996) and cold phase (1997—2016), respectively. The composite analysis shows that ALTCs can occur with a warm sea surface temperature anomaly in the northern South China Sea, which induced cyclonic atmospheric circulation in the South China and favors TCs landed in Guangdong.

Key words: landed tropical cyclone in autumn, long-term variation, interannual variability, ENSO

HAN Dingyan, LI Min, HU Rui, XIE Lingling. Variation and mechanisms of autumn tropical cyclones landed in Guangdong[J].Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2024, 43(1): 64-78.

Figures/Tables 19

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月份	生成TCs		登陆TCs		登陆/生成比
月份	个数	占总数比	个数	占总数比	登陆/生成比
4月	57	4.50%	2	0.80%	3.50%
5月	96	7.70%	7	2.60%	7.30%
6月	177	14.10%	43	16.10%	24.30%
7月	380	30.30%	68	25.50%	17.90%
8月	545	43.40%	71	26.60%	13.00%
9月	442	35.20%	57	21.40%	12.90%
10月	323	25.70%	16	6.00%	5.00%
11月	200	15.90%	3	1.10%	1.50%
总计	1255		267		21.30%

PDO不同位相期	全年TCs	秋季TCs	夏季TCs
1954—2016	r = 0.37, P<0.01	r = 0.28, P=0.03	r = 0.33, P<0.01
1954—1976(冷)	r = 0.45, P=0.03	r =-0.10, P=0.63	r = 0.41, P=0.06
1977—1996(暖)	r = 0.24, P=0.32	r =-0.51, P=0.02	r = 0.51, P=0.02
1997—2016(冷)	r = 0.44, P=0.05	r = 0.68, P<0.01	r = 0.21, P=0.39

年份	结束时间
2003	9月第4候(略偏早2候)
2004	9月第4候(略偏早2候)
2005	9月第6候(接近常年)
2006	10月第2候(偏晚2候)
2007	10月第3候(偏晚3候)
2008	10月第2候(偏晚2候)
2009	10月第3候(偏晚3候)
2010	10月第5候(偏晚5候)
2011	10月第3候(偏晚3候)
2012	10月第2候(偏晚2候)
2013	10月第4候(偏晚4候)
2014	9月第6候(接近常年)
2015	10月第2候(偏晚2候)
2016	10月第6候(偏晚6候)
2017	10月第5候(偏晚5候)
2018	9月第5候(略偏早1候)
2019	9月第5候(略偏早1候)
2020	10月第6候(偏晚6候)
2021	10月第5候(偏晚5候)

Variation and mechanisms of autumn tropical cyclones landed in Guangdong

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