钦州湾表层海水营养盐的月际变化特征及其影响因子研究*

doi:10.11978/2025242

Abstract

Abstract:

Estuaries and bays are crucial links between land and sea. The nutrient levels in Qinzhou Bay, a critical estuary of the Pinglu Canal, are fundamental to preserving both the structural health and functional stability of the coastal ecosystem in this region. This study systematically investigated monthly variations of nutrients in surface seawater of Qinzhou Bay from June 2024 to May 2025. Key nutrient-influencing factors were identified using a random forest regression model and the eutrophication status was assessed. Monthly average concentrations of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) ranged from (0.12±0.22) to (0.95±0.92) mg∙L⁻¹ in Qinzhou Bay, mostly meeting the Class Ⅳ seawater quality standard. Pollution levels of dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) were relatively low, with monthly average concentrations ranging from (0.006±0.001) to (0.043±0.019) mg∙L⁻¹, meeting the Class Ⅱ and Ⅲ seawater quality standards. The high-value areas of monthly DIN and dissolved silica (DSi) concentrations consistently occurred in the Qinjiang River estuary, while the high-value areas of DIP exhibited inter-monthly migration between the estuary and the aquaculture area of Maowei Sea. Qinzhou Bay has been under eutrophic conditions for extended periods. Using the eutrophication index (EI) and nutrient quality index (NQI) methods, the study found that the two methods matched consistently in high eutrophication periods (June to August 2024, May 2025), but showed significant differences in medium and low eutrophication periods. Both EI and NQI were significantly positively correlated with DIN concentration and significantly negatively correlated with salinity, indicating that land-based freshwater input is the key contributor to eutrophication in Qinzhou Bay. Apart from freshwater input being the main source of DIN and DIP, chemical oxygen demand is also an important factor influencing the spatial variation of DIP, accounting for 32.70% of the total feature importance. Long-term trend analysis showed that the concentrations of DIN and DIP in Qinzhou Bay have increased rapidly from 1983 to 2024, with significant long-term accumulation of nutrients. Although there have been some phased achievements in nitrogen and phosphorus control in recent years, population growth during urbanization, industrial expansion, and fluctuations in agricultural fertilizer application remain the main reasons for the severe pollution of nitrogen and phosphorus in this sea area. This study provides a scientific basis for a deeper understanding of the monthly variations and transformation of nutrients, the dynamics of eutrophication and the interannual changes in nutrients in Qinzhou Bay, and also offers theoretical support for the targeted prevention and control of eutrophication in this sea area.

Key words: Pinglu Canal, Qinzhou Bay, nutrients, DIN, DIP

CLC Number:

P734

SUN Kangwei, LIAO Riquan, LI Han, WENG Peiyao, TANG Jianhui. Monthly variability of nutrient concentrations and influencing factors in surface seawater of Qinzhou Bay^*[J].Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2026, 45(4): 162-178.

Figures/Tables 11

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Tab. 1

Environmental factors and eutrophication indices of surface seawater in Qinzhou Bay from June 2024 to May 2025"

时间	区域	pH	S/‰	DO含量/(mg∙L⁻¹)	COD含量/(mg∙L⁻¹)	Chl a含量 /(μg∙L⁻¹)	T/℃	DIN浓度 /(mg∙L⁻¹)	DIP浓度 /(mg∙L⁻¹)	DSi浓度/(mg∙L⁻¹)	DIN/DIP	EI	NQI
2024-06	钦州湾	8.23 ± 0.83	11.39 ± 9.57	7.16 ± 0.63	2.51 ± 0.69	3.66 ± 3.07	31.59 ± 1.30	0.70 ± 0.41	0.031 ± 0.027	1.98 ± 1.52	69.45 ± 42.40	19.26 ± 26.58	4.84 ± 2.41
2024-07	钦州湾	5.77 ± 0.31	11.01 ± 8.88	6.47 ± 1.36	4.15 ± 1.09	1.92 ± 0.74	29.29 ± 0.68	0.95 ± 0.92	0.043 ± 0.019	2.80 ± 1.38	39.28 ± 39.19	44.55 ± 42.33	6.39 ± 3.47
2024-08	钦州湾	8.03 ± 0.53	15.72 ± 8.41	5.95 ± 1.17	1.59 ± 0.32	2.53 ± 2.78	31.61 ± 0.59	0.59 ± 0.44	0.027 ± 0.016	1.68 ± 0.87	55.10 ± 51.85	6.85 ± 6.73	3.91 ± 1.51
2024-09	钦州湾	8.08 ± 0.58	14.12 ± 9.79	6.81 ± 0.69	1.32 ± 0.84	2.59 ± 2.24	30.53 ± 0.46	0.73 ± 0.66	0.011 ± 0.011	2.52 ± 1.31	175.35 ± 145.20	4.44 ± 6.79	3.80 ± 2.60
2024-10	钦州湾	7.25 ± 0.40	22.17 ± 7.29	6.67 ± 0.22	1.01 ± 0.59	1.69 ± 0.75	27.39 ± 1.62	0.32 ± 0.40	0.006 ± 0.001	1.50 ± 1.19	110.96 ± 121.11	0.76 ± 1.56	1.96 ± 1.51
2024-11	钦州湾	8.15 ± 1.02	23.24 ± 8.19	8.25 ± 0.27	0.43 ± 0.30	1.69 ± 0.44	20.46 ± 0.72	0.42 ± 0.56	0.010 ± 0.008	1.44 ± 1.09	105.54 ± 140.60	1.40 ± 2.59	2.41 ± 1.98
2024-12	钦州湾	8.22 ± 0.60	27.52 ± 3.86	9.14 ± 0.62	1.62 ± 0.71	1.55 ± 0.62	16.37 ± 0.96	0.25 ± 0.30	0.026 ± 0.020	0.52 ± 0.53	23.08 ± 16.63	5.28 ± 9.24	2.49 ± 1.71
2025-01	钦州湾	8.31 ± 0.09	26.94 ± 3.54	10.12 ± 0.18	1.14 ± 0.44	2.17 ± 0.71	15.40 ± 0.43	0.12 ± 0.22	0.019 ± 0.012	0.20 ± 0.25	10.70 ± 10.41	1.86 ± 5.89	1.62 ± 0.64
2025-02	钦州湾	8.11 ± 0.13	28.11 ± 3.67	9.56 ± 0.21	0.79 ± 0.41	1.61 ± 0.46	16.01 ± 0.80	0.23 ± 0.30	0.027 ± 0.023	0.34 ± 0.28	17.15 ± 17.90	2.36 ± 3.59	2.10 ± 1.40
2025-03	钦州湾	8.05 ± 0.10	27.48 ± 3.54	8.32 ± 0.70	1.22 ± 0.60	5.25 ± 5.35	23.28 ± 1.25	0.23 ± 0.27	0.019 ± 0.014	0.26 ± 0.22	81.70 ± 158.70	1.13 ± 1.31	2.80 ± 2.08
2025-04	钦州湾	7.92 ± 0.20	27.07 ± 4.64	7.94 ± 0.61	1.37 ± 0.66	10.86 ± 21.46	25.72 ± 0.97	0.26 ± 0.29	0.033 ± 0.041	0.36 ± 0.31	64.09 ± 194.23	4.91 ± 10.79	4.60 ± 5.06
2025-05	钦州湾	7.91 ± 0.28	23.36 ± 6.95	7.42 ± 0.93	1.69 ± 0.85	4.87 ± 2.21	29.73 ± 2.25	0.43 ± 0.36	0.036 ± 0.030	0.84 ± 0.72	27.86 ± 19.11	36.52 ± 41.81	5.45 ± 1.99
2024-06至2025-05	茅尾海	7.62 ± 0.69	16.19 ± 8.51	7.63 ± 1.46	1.93 ± 1.06	3.74 ± 4.41	24.66 ± 6.34	0.69 ± 0.34	0.036 ± 0.019	1.82 ± 1.29	88.81 ± 70.49	19.53 ± 24.88	4.96 ± 2.05
	外湾	8.04 ± 0.75	26.94 ± 4.18	8.04 ± 1.16	1.20 ± 0.79	3.17 ± 1.56	24.87 ± 6.33	0.17 ± 0.13	0.012 ± 0.005	0.58 ± 0.50	40.89 ± 37.53	1.35 ± 2.02	2.08 ± 0.91
	钦州湾	7.84 ± 0.71	21.51 ± 6.63	7.82 ± 1.31	1.57 ± 0.96	3.37 ± 2.68	24.78 ± 6.29	0.44 ± 0.20	0.024 ± 0.011	1.20 ± 0.48	65.02 ± 48.02	10.78 ± 14.85	3.53 ± 1.54
	(均值与范围)	(5.52~10.38)	(0.11~31.59)	(3.56~10.48)	(0.08~5.83)	(0.42~20.17)	(14.40~35.74)	(0.01~2.76)	(0.001~0.191)	(0.02~5.12)	(1.03~887.04)	(0.003~158.13)	(0.57~23.54)

Tab. 1

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Fig. 7

Tab. 2

Fig. 8

Fig. 9

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特征名称	DIN特征重要性	DIP特征重要性	DSi特征重要性
盐度	66.20%	10.90%	82.70%
COD	14.60%	32.70%	4.60%
pH	6.20%	18.70%	2.40%
DO	5.40%	7.80%	4.70%
Chl a	4.10%	14.20%	4.00%
T	3.40%	15.60%	1.60%

Monthly variability of nutrient concentrations and influencing factors in surface seawater of Qinzhou Bay^*

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Monthly variability of nutrient concentrations and influencing factors in surface seawater of Qinzhou Bay*

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Monthly variability of nutrient concentrations and influencing factors in surface seawater of Qinzhou Bay^*