Journal of Tropical Oceanography ›› 2023, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (1): 32-42.doi: 10.11978/2021145CSTR: 32234.14.2021145

Special Issue: 全球变化专题

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Effect of typhoon on storm surge in the Pearl River Estuary

GAO Na1(), ZHAO Mingli1, MA Yi1, XU Wanming1, ZHAN Haigang2,3, CAI Shuqun2,3,4,5   

  1. 1. South China Sea Institute of Planning and Environmental Research, State Oceanic Administration, Guangzhou 510310, China
    2. State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography of the South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510301, China
    3. Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou), Guangzhou 511458, China
    4. Institution of South China Sea Ecology and Environmental Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510301, China
    5. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2021-10-27 Revised:2022-03-15 Online:2023-01-10 Published:2022-03-03
  • Contact: ZHAO Mingli. email: zhaomingli@126.com
  • Supported by:
    National Key Research and Development Program of China(2017YFC1405300); National Natural Science Foundation of China(41890851); Key Special Project for Introduced Talents Team of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou)(GML2019ZD0305)

Abstract:

Storm surge disasters occur frequently along the Pearl River Estuary and are significantly affected by typhoon. This study analyzed the extreme surge at the Chiwan Station in the Pearl River Estuary during the past 30 years (1990-2019). The results show that the average annual storm surge in this region has not changed significantly recent years, but the extreme storm surge (99.9 quantile) has increased greatly (1.62 cm·a-1), which means that the extreme storm surge disasters have continued to increase. In the past 30 years, the annual maximum storm surge in 20 years occurred during typhoons (accounting for 66.7%). In 2018, the maximum storm surge caused by super typhoon “mangkhut” reached 254 cm, which was the largest storm surge disaster in the past 30 years. The maximum response distance of storm surge to typhoon is about 500~800 km. Within the influence range of typhoon, the storm surge has an approximate linear relationship with typhoon intensity, and an exponential relationship with the distance from typhoon center. Different indexes of typhoon intensity (minimum pressure, maximum wind speed and maximum wind speed radius of typhoon center) were used to fit the storm surge with the distance from the observation station to the typhoon center, and it was found that the combination of wind speed and distance had the best description effect on storm surge (Sw=3.23e-0.0036D×Γw-3.90)+4.48, R2=0.78, RMSE=9.69 cm). These results can improve the understanding of local storm surge disaster, provide validation data for typhoon storm surge simulation and reference for storm surge disaster risk assessment and response decision.

Key words: typhoon, storm surge, Pear River Estuary