基于卫星遥感海温数据的南海SST预报误差订正

doi:10.11978/2019128

Abstract

Abstract:

A new error-correction forecast model for sea surface temperature (SST) is proposed in this paper, where the SST errors are derived from the Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) data and operational numerical prediction SST product. First of all, the reliability of the GHRSST data was validated with the upper temperature data of Argo floats in the South China Sea. The results showed that the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) between the two sets of data was about 0.3℃ while the correlation coefficient was 0.98; the GHRSST data could be used for the correction of operational numerical forecast model on SST in the South China Sea. After being corrected, the RMSEs of 24-hr, 48-hr and 72-hr SST forecast results were dropped from 0.8 ℃ to 0.5 ℃ compared with the upper temperature data of Argo floats. Meanwhile, the 24-hr, 48-hr and 72-hr SST forecast errors between the GHRSST data and model results were significantly reduced after the correction in the northern South China Sea (110°E -121°E, 13°N -23°N). During the influence of the cold air or the mesoscale eddy in the South China Sea, the effect of SST forecast correction was also quite significant. Therefore, this method should be considered to apply in the operational numerical forecast system on SST in the South China Sea.

Key words: SST, Operational numerical prediction, Error correction, GHRSST, Argo, South China Sea

CLC Number:

P731.31

ZHANG Peijun, ZHOU Shuihua, LIANG Changxia. Study on the correction of SST prediction in South China Sea using remotely sensed SST[J].Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2020, 39(6): 57-65.

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序号	浮标编号	时间分布
1	2901479	2016-05-03—2019-02-05
2	2901480	2016-04-27—2018-09-08
3	2901481	2016-04-28—2019-02-20
4	2902045	2015-09-10—2017-07-05
5	2902056	2016-04-27—2016-10-22
6	2902692	2016-09-12—2017-09-18
7	2902694	2016-09-10—2017-09-21
8	2902744	2017-11-22—2019-01-16
9	2902745	2017-11-22—2019-02-15
10	5904539	2015-11-08—2016-05-30
11	5904747	2016-05-03—2018-01-13

	均方根误差		相关系数
	订正前	订正后	订正前	订正后
24h	0.85	0.36	0.94	0.98
48h	0.84	0.42	0.94	0.98
72h	0.86	0.46	0.94	0.97

Study on the correction of SST prediction in South China Sea using remotely sensed SST

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